Talk Cancer

Question:

– Hide quoted text — Show quoted text – I didn’t see a source provided for this amusing stupidity yet I have to suspect that it’s from The Onion since it’s so silly. -=- Odds On That God Exists, Says Scientist A scientist has calculated that there is a 67% chance that God exists. Dr Stephen Unwin has used a 200-year-old formula to calculate the probability of the existence of an omnipotent being. Bayes’ Theory is usually used to work out the likelihood of events, such as nuclear power failure, by balancing the various factors that could affect a situation. This did the rounds a couple of months ago – its not a joke – the guy is serious. He starts by assuming that god/no god is %50 before looking at "evidence". Then he modifies that initial prbability according to the "evidence".

Does he assume that the Great Arkleseizure is has a yes/no probability of 50%? And if not, why not? Its a crock on several levels.

He’s supposed to be a scientist? – Hide quoted text — Show quoted text -Either/or fallacy being the most obvious. (Pascal’s Error.) Mark.

Response:

– Hide quoted text — Show quoted text – I didn’t see a source provided for this amusing stupidity yet I have to suspect that it’s from The Onion since it’s so silly. -=- Odds On That God Exists, Says Scientist A scientist has calculated that there is a 67% chance that God exists. Dr Stephen Unwin has used a 200-year-old formula to calculate the probability of the existence of an omnipotent being. Bayes’ Theory is usually used to work out the likelihood of events, such as nuclear power failure, by balancing the various factors that could affect a situation. This did the rounds a couple of months ago – its not a joke – the guy is serious. He starts by assuming that god/no god is %50 before looking at "evidence". Then he modifies that initial prbability according to the "evidence". Does he assume that the Great Arkleseizure is has a yes/no probability of 50%?

Well spotted Chris. Strangely no. 0% for that and 0% for Zeus and his pantheon, the Egyptian pantheon, the Norse pantheon. All zero. And if not, why not?

Because if he included say 10,000 gods (just to pick an arbitary ,but slightly more "real world", number ) then the initial probability for God would be one half of 1 in 100000. Oh! And he is a christian. Call me a cynical old bastard, but that may have been a factor. Its a crock on several levels. He’s supposed to be a scientist?

Yep. Phd in Theoretical Physics I believe – London and Manchester. Even has his own website: http://www.stephenunwin.com/ Pathetic what religious belief does to peoples integrity isn’t it? Mark. — Mark Richardson mDOTrichardsonATutasDOTeduDOTau Member of S.M.A.S.H. (Sarcastic Middle aged  Atheists with a Sense of Humour)

Response:

The Manchester University graduate, who now works as a risk assessor in Ohio, said the theory starts from the assumption that God has a 50/50 chance of existing,

This has been posted here before, and my response is as before: GIGO.

Response:

I didn’t see a source provided for this amusing stupidity yet I have to suspect that it’s from The Onion since it’s so silly. -=- Odds On That God Exists, Says Scientist A scientist has calculated that there is a 67% chance that God exists. Dr Stephen Unwin has used a 200-year-old formula to calculate the probability of the existence of an omnipotent being. Bayes’ Theory is usually used to work out the likelihood of events, such as nuclear power failure, by balancing the various factors that could affect a situation.

This did the rounds a couple of months ago – its not a joke – the guy is serious. He starts by assuming that god/no god is %50 before looking at "evidence". Then he modifies that initial prbability according to the "evidence". Its a crock on several levels. Either/or fallacy being the most obvious. (Pascal’s Error.) Mark. — Mark Richardson mDOTrichardsonATutasDOTeduDOTau Member of S.M.A.S.H. (Sarcastic Middle aged  Atheists with a Sense of Humour)

Response:

I didn’t see a source provided for this amusing stupidity yet I have to suspect that it’s from The Onion since it’s so silly. -=- What with the topic of God and religeon so often our faces so much this election cycle, I thought perhaps camps on both sides of the great question mark might get a chuckle out of this.  Seems unlikely that one could calculate the odds of God’s existence with any credibility, but what the hell.  Have at it.  ; ) Odds On That God Exists, Says Scientist A scientist has calculated that there is a 67% chance that God exists. Dr Stephen Unwin has used a 200-year-old formula to calculate the probability of the existence of an omnipotent being. Bayes’ Theory is usually used to work out the likelihood of events, such as nuclear power failure, by balancing the various factors that could affect a situation. The Manchester University graduate, who now works as a risk assessor in Ohio, said the theory starts from the assumption that God has a 50/50 chance of existing, and then factors in the evidence both for and against the notion of a higher being. Factors that were considered included recognition of goodness, which Dr Unwin said makes the existence of God more likely, countered by things like the existence of natural evil – including earthquakes and cancer. The unusual workings – which even take into account the existence of miracles – are set out in his new book, which includes a spreadsheet of the data used so that anyone can make the calculation themselves should they doubt its validity. The book, The Probability of God: A simple calculation that proves the ultimate truth, will be published later this month. Dr Unwin said he was interested in bridging the gap between science and religion. He argues that rather than being a theological issue, the question of God’s existence is simply a matter of statistics. "On arriving in America I was exposed to certain religious outlooks that were somewhat of an assault upon my sensibilities – outlooks in which religion actually competes with science as an explanation of the world," he said. "While I could not be sure, having slept through most of the cathedral services I had attended during secondary school, this did not seem like the version of faith I had remembered. In many ways, this project was for me a journey home – a reconciliation of my faith and education." Despite his findings, Dr Unwin maintains that he is personally around 95% certain that God exists. However, Graham Sharp, media relations director at William Hill, said there were technical problems with giving odds on the existence of God. "The problem is how you confirm the existence of God. With the Loch Ness monster we require confirmation from the Natural History Museum to pay out, but who are we going to ask about God? The church would definitely confirm his existence." Mr Sharp said William Hill does take bets on the second coming, which currently stand at 1,000/1. For this confirmation is needed from the Archbishop of Canterbury. "We do take bets on the second coming, whether that confirms the existence of God is up to the theologians to argue, most people wouldn’t believe that, though." — Where to find Fahrenheit 9/11:  http://www.f911tix.com/ "There’s nothing innocent about the Arabs, dumbass." – Creosote 216.67.201.248

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